What happens to by-products from the manufacturing process?Can the product be recycled at the end of its life?Is the waste safely disposed of or reused?As we educate ourselves, one another, and our clients on the continuum of sustainability, we begin to understand the bigger picture of globalization—people, animals, plants, and ecosystems—and that everything is connected. We learn that bamboo flooring made in China affects the quality of life in Greenland, and wool carpet from New Zealand can affect the health of people in the U.S. Armed with a multilayered understanding of a product’s environmental attributes, we actively engage in the reality that everything we do has an affect on the planet.Knowledge is power and leads to nurturing the future of our planet by choosing the greenest possible solutions. As Dr. Wangari Maathai, the 2004 Nobel Peace Prize winner and founder of the Green Belt Movement, says, “Peace on Earth depends on our ability to secure our living environment.”Be the difference! Don’t hesitate; start now on building your green library and enjoy your research in qualifying products by taking one step at a time. And remember, we are all in this together!Sources: Sustainable Residential Interiors by Associates III – Foster, Stelmack, Hindman (John Wiley & Sons, 2007)“REGREEN Residential Remodeling Guidelines” by ASID & USGBCPlanet Green The choices we make today are shaping what our world will look like tomorrow.We are all consumers, with an inherent responsibility in the choices we make on a daily, hourly basis. Our choices can lead to improving the quality of life for all, and eventually restoring and regenerating our planet. So where do we start in qualifying products that lead to the final selection of an environmentally preferable product?I like to ask manufacturers and suppliers questions that explore their sustainable strategies and principles. I enjoy the dialogue and engage them in discussing their specific strategies, which might include reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the conservation of energy and water; the use of renewable raw materials; the improvement of indoor air quality; the support of renewable energy sources—the list (as they say) goes on and on.The next time you meet with a manufacturer or supplier, consider this short list of questions:Manufacturer’s Sustainability:Is there an environmental policy in place on the company’s website?Does the company openly provide an annual report on sustainability?Are products made using sustainable manufacturing practices— first reducing and reusing, then recycling?Does the company participate in reforestation or giving back to the community?Does the manufacturing process efficiently use resources such as water and energy?Product Composition:What are the raw materials? Where do they come from and/or how are the raw materials harvested?What are the material contents?Is it made from renewable and/or recycled resources?Product Characteristics:Is it third-party certified from such organizations as Forest Stewardship Council, Greenguard, or Scientific Certification Systems?Is it formaldehyde free?Is it treated with chemicals or preservatives?Does it include binders or adhesives? If so, what are they made from? Are they zero- or low-emissions?What colorants, dyes, finishes and/or sealants were used? Are they toxic or benign?What percentage of the material is from recycled content?If the product contains reclaimed material, where is it from, and is it free of lead, nails, tar, and creosote?If there is a backing, what is it made of?Does the product off-gas or emit toxins during the manufacturing process, and to installers or end users?What are the product’s life-cycle costs, including durability, embodied energy, maintenance, recycling/disposal?Packaging/Transportation:How is the product packaged?Can packaging be returned for reuse or recycling?How is the product shipped and from where?Recycling/Disposal:
How to Build an Insulated Cathedral CeilingAir Sealing an AtticIce Dam BasicsAll About Attic VentingHow to Install Rigid Foam On Top of Roof SheathingPrevent Ice Dams With Air Sealing and InsulationMartin’s Ten Rules of Roof Design RELATED ARTICLES Local builders aren’t getting itButson says the local builders he’s contacted haven’t been of much help.“More broadly, I am slowly coming to terms with the fact that I will have to do most of the engineering work for this renovation,” he says. “I have hired an architect who can create plans and construction details for what I want to execute. What I have not been able to find is a builder who seems to understand these issues or possible solutions.”Butson has spoken to several builders, but they all insist that he will need heating cables.“I fundamentally disagree with this, but I doubt I will be able to convince them otherwise,” he says, “and even if I do them, I don’t have confidence in their ability to execute the necessary modifications and details.”For homeowners in search of a builder who is familiar with building science principles, one option, according to Holladay, is to contact a local energy rater certified by RESNET or the Building Performance Institute. To find a local energy rater, Butson can use the search function on one or both of these two websites.“Call up the energy rater and ask for the names of local contractors who understand energy issues, building performance issues, and building science issues,” Holladay says. “Good luck.” Chris Butson’s Utah home sits at an elevation of 6,000 feet and experiences everything from sub-zero temperatures in the winter to 100-degree summer days. Built in 1994, the house has what Butson believes is an underinsulated roof that contributes to big electric bills and massive ice dams.“From what I have observed, the roof/attic was not insulated well when built,” Butson writes in a post on GBA’s Q&A column. “This has been partly remedied by blowing in extra insulation into the attic, but most of the cathedral ceilings were framed with 2x12s with probably 8-inch or 9-inch thick batts of fiberglass. In short, the roof has lots of heat gain during the summer and lots of heat loss in winter.”To compensate, the builder installed a huge air conditioning unit to make summers more comfortable, as well as hundreds of feet of heating cables along the eaves to melt ice dams as they form in winter. Does it work? No. “Not surprisingly,” Butson says, “our electric bill is quite high and we have massive ice dams.”Butson has done his homework. His solution includes adding rigid foam insulation of some kind on top of the existing roof sheathing to get the R-value up to 49, adding blown-in insulation to the attic, improving attic ventilation, eliminating skylights, and building a conditioned mechanical room in the attic for the furnace and AC equipment. Get rid of the heating cablesHeating cables melt accumulating ice along the eaves, preventing ice dams from forming. The cables are a familiar sight on older homes in snow country, but they are evidence of inadequate insulation and air leaks.Jon R suggests that Butson make sure the cables are plugged into a smart controller so the cables use less electricity than they would with “dumber” controls.But Holladay would have Butson remove the cables completely.“Installing heating cables at the eaves of a roof is a terrible idea, so the simplest explanation is that Europeans are smarter than Americans,” he says in answer to Buston’s query about why he’s never seen heating cables on any European roofs. “Seriously, though: most areas of continental Europe don’t get as much snow as New England or the upper Midwest, so ice dams are rare in the Netherlands, Belgium, or the lower elevations of France or Germany. “In colder parts of Europe like Scandinavia, he adds, building practices are better than they are in the U.S.; most houses in Scandinavia get more insulation and better air barriers than American homes.The heating cables should be unplugged and removed, he says. “The fact remains that any house with heating cables at the eaves suffers from fundamental design errors that can be avoided during the design and construction phases of any new home,” Holladay says. “Does this plan sound reasonable, or am I missing something fundamental?” he asks. “Why do I never see heating cable in cold regions in Europe? In fact, I have several German friends and colleagues and they don’t even know what I’m talking about. Is my perception correct and if so what is different about the way their houses are built?”That’s the topic for this Q&A Spotlight. Use 2x4s to create an air gapThe roof probably needs ventilation — just not the ventilation that’s currently built into it.As Holladay explains, ventilation typically includes vents at both the soffits (which admit air) and at the ridge (which allow the air to escape). The air flows above the uppermost layer of insulation and exits the building at the top of the roof, carrying with it moisture that would otherwise accumulate in the insulation or on the bottom surface of the roof sheathing.These existing air passages will be in the wrong location if Butson adds new rigid foam above the existing roof sheathing, so these are the ventilation channels that should be sealed when the new foam is installed. Butson can add new ventilation channels in the roof when he adds the new rigid foam. One way of accomplishing that, Holladay says, is to install 2x4s on the flat, 24 inches on center, over the rigid foam on the roof. These 2x4s are installed so they’re perpendicular to the ridge, creating ventilation channels 1 1/2 inch deep.If the roofing requires solid sheathing, Butson can add a layer of OSB or plywood over the 2x4s, followed by underlayment and roofing. If he wants the install screw-down metal roofing, he could install 1×4 or 2×4 purlins over the first layer of 2x4s, and attach the roofing panels to them.Holladay points out that the ventilation channels above the new rigid foam are optional. That said, the ventilation channels reduce the chance of ice dams in snowy climates, making them advisable in Butson’s case. Air-sealing is keyWhile Butson’s plan looks reasonable, Steve Knapp writes, the new insulation will do more good if the structure is as airtight as possible. “One thing I would suggest is undertaking a thorough air-sealing exercise,” he says, “in combination with blower door testing.”Good advice, adds GBA senior editor Martin Holladay.“In addition to following Steve’s advice — performing air sealing measures — you’ll also need to find a way to block the air intake into the ventilation chutes in your existing cathedral ceilings, and to also block the tops of these ventilation chutes near the ridge,” Holladay adds. “Adding rigid foam above the roof sheathing to supplement the performance of the fluffy insulation between the rafters is a great idea, but that approach will only work if you can exclude exterior air from the ventilation channel between the top of the fiberglass batts and the underside of the roof sheathing.”After sealing those areas, he says, Butson can (if he wants) build new ventilation channels above the new rigid foam insulation in the roof. These new ventilation channels should connect soffit vents and ridge vents. Our expert’s opinionGBA technical director Peter Yost had this to add:Heating cables address the symptom, not the cause. Ice dams need lots of conductive and convective heat loss at the eaves. You can’t ventilate your way out of ice dams either: you can’t move enough cold, dry air to overcome the warm, moist air leaking at the eaves.While ventilating the new roof deck is a good idea, you don’t necessarily need that ventilation; there are plenty of well-performing, durable “hot” (or unvented) cathedral roof assemblies. They all have continuous air and thermal barriers at the eaves and tops of the eave walls.A great resource for understanding ice dams is Bill Rose’s Water in Buildings, Chapter 4, which reads in part: “To correct existing ice dams, identify the vagrant heat source and correct it…. Venting is limited in its ability to dilute excess heat — limited by low quantities of flow through vents and a low heat capacity in air. Unfortunately, heat losses, especially stupidly wasteful losses… have no such physical limitations.”The tougher question sounds like who will do the work and do it well. Continuous air and thermal barriers require workers who respect the building science of hygrothermal flows. The best suggestion I have — besides Martin’s recommendation to ask for advice from BPI-certified professionals — is to contact local and state home builders associations and ask them for a list of their members who have completed the Advanced Green Building: Building Science two-day course. (I was one of the primary authors of this course and it was developed using a ton of content from Green Building Advisor.)
NAGPUR: Congress leaders and the family members of a farmer who committed suicide in Yavatmal district of Maharashtra last week — after naming Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his suicide note — have demanded that an FIR be filed against the Prime Minister.Prakash Prabhakar Mangavkar, a farmer from Titavi village in Ghatanji tehsil, killed himself on September 16. He had reportedly written the words “Modi Sarkar” and “karjasathi atmahatya (suicide for debt)” on two leaves.He is survived by his wife and two children. His family demanded that Mr. Modi be booked when Congress leader Shivajirao Moghe visited them on Monday.Mangavkar’s family members told a local news channel on Monday that the farmer was “fed up” by the difficulties in filling the online application for the government’s loan waiver. “He was jubilant when Mr. Modi became the Prime Minister. He would say that now there is a leader who will stand up for farmers. But nothing happened, and he was feeling betrayed. Had Mr. Modi acted on his promises, our family would not have lost a life,” they said. Mr. Moghe told The Hindu their demand was absolutely correct. “When farmers committed suicide during our reign, Devendra Fadnavis would demand an FIR against our government. Now that a farmer has himself written the PM’s name in a suicide note, there should be an FIR against him. During the 2014 election campaign, the PM made 18 promises to farmers in Yavatmal. The farmers believed him, and voted for the BJP. Not a single promise has been fulfilled by the PM in the last three years.”Mr.Kishor Tiwari, head of the State government’s panel on farmers’ distress, however, said Mangavkar was under stress as his mini truck had hit a person and there was a complaint against him. He said that the farmer’s loan waiver application had been approved. “But it’s true that he wrote Mr. Modi’s name on a leaf,” Mr. Tiwari told The Hindu.Nana Patole, the BJP MP from Gondia-Bhandara, also visited Mangavkar’s family on Monday. “The government is taking every effort to stop farmers’ suicides. It is true that the online application process is complicated. I will brief the PM and the CM about this incident, as the people are now talking about booking the Prime Minister [for the suicide],” Mr.Patole told reporters.
Vivo is launching its crazy futuristic Nex S phone in India on July 19. The Nex S is a phone with no bezels, no notch and a pop-up selfie camera. It was first announced alongside the Nex A — which is an even more affordable option with toned down specs but similar design — in early June in China. Vivo is now bringing the Nex S to India, making it only the second market in the world after China to gain access to its sci-fi tech. Sister brand Oppo, is meanwhile, launching its own crazy Find X phone in India on July 12.While the Nex S is Vivo’s top-of-the-line phone with Qualcomm Snapdragon 845 processor and 8GB RAM and an in-display fingerprint scanner, the Nex A is the same phone with a Qualcomm Snapdragon 710 processor and 6GB RAM and a conventional rear-mounted fingerprint scanner. Vivo is only bringing its top-tier Nex S phone to India for now.The USP of the Nex phone is its futuristic design. The Nex has an all-glass front (and back), and an over 90 per cent of screen-to-body ratio. This is because the Nex does not ship with a notch. There’s a small chin at the bottom but overall, the Nex is the most bezel-less phone in the market right now. It is, in fact, the commercial variant of the concept Apex phone that Vivo had showcased at MWC 2018.The Nex does now have a forehead, and as such, the earpiece and sensors are placed underneath the display. Much like it is in the case of the Xiaomi Mi Mix. Unlike the Mi Mix, however, the Nex does not have a bottom seated selfie camera. The Nex, instead, comes with a rather unconventional pop-out selfie camera that’s built out of mechanical parts. This means that it’s prone to wear and tear over time, although Vivo says, that it can be used hassle-free about 50,000 times and also it can withstand up to 500-grams of weight.advertisementElsewhere the Nex — the Nex S — sports a third-generation in-display fingerprint scanner that’s said to be faster and more accurate than the one we saw on the recently launched Vivo X21. The regular Nex A ships with a conventional rear-mounted fingerprint scanner.Hardware specs include: 6.59-inch 1080p+ AMOLED display, dual rear camera system consisting of one 12-megapixel sensor and another 5-megapixel sensor for depth sensing. The Nex further comes with an 8-megapixel front camera. The phone runs Android 8.1 Oreo-based Fun Touch OS and is backed by a 4,000mAh battery.
COLLEGE STATION, TX – OCTOBER 08: Head coach Kevin Sumlin of the Texas A&M Aggies waits on the sideline in the second half of their game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Kyle Field on October 8, 2016 in College Station, Texas. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin appears to have had a DM misfire on Twitter this afternoon. A short time ago, Sumlin tweeted a message that included a joke about him being glad he “didn’t pull a Sark after Dark.” That’s a reference to USC head coach Steve Sarkisian’s drunken antics at a Trojans’ booster event last weekend. Of course, as with all DM misfires, Sumlin deleted the tweet, but not before an alert Twitter user captured a screen shot. Man Kevin Sumlin is a savage for this #sarkafterdark pic.twitter.com/bFH4yK6N4a— Jamie (@jspride) August 29, 2015Other users spotted it and have been referencing it as well.Sooooo…Sumlin deleted that pretty quick once he realized it wasn’t a DM.— Shooter Flatch (@texasagsec) August 29, 2015@ParkerTodd16 hahaha that was a quick delete by Sumlin— Justin Rydell (@jrydell15) August 29, 2015That’s a real tweet from Kevin Sumlin.— Joaquin (@BoughtAtAPrice7) August 29, 2015
NEW YORK, N.Y. – Harry’s has carved out a niche selling men shaving razors direct to their doors, elbowing in on an industry long dominated by names like Gillette and Schick.In the process, the company says it found that 1 million women were using its products for their shaving needs.So its logical next step is Flamingo, a direct-to-consumer hair removal and body-care brand for women that launches Tuesday.Flamingo’s leaders say their aim is to make women more comfortable talking about shaving and waxing.“We want to normalize the fact that women might have hair here, or there, and if they choose to remove it, we want to support that,” Allie Melnick, the general manager for Flamingo says in an interview with The Associated Press.Flamingo is the first brand to emerge from Harry’s Labs, an offshoot of the company that has chipped away at the market share of industry giant Gillette, capitalizing on consumer frustration with pricey razors. Harry’s received $112 million in new funding earlier this year to develop new brands, with a vision to becoming a major consumer-products company to compete with the likes of Gillette parent Proctor & Gamble.Flamingo offers a five-blade razor, waxing kits, shaving gel and body lotion for women. The products will be sold on its own direct-to-consumer website , a space where the brand’s leaders Brittania Boey and Melnick hope to open frank conversations about women and body hair.The duo says Harry’s internal research shows nearly all U.S. women choose to shave or wax off some of their body hair. They say Flamingo wants to offer products and tips to help women do that while talking openly about furry toes, back hair and fuzzy upper lips.Harry’s launched as a direct-to-consumer company in 2013. It has since expanded into body care for men and now sells its products in Target and Walmart. Along with rival Dollar Shave Club, the company shook up the $2.8 billion U.S. men’s shaving industry, forcing Gillette to slash its razor prices and revamp its marketing strategy to stem a decline in market share.Harry’s remains a relatively small player, with 2 per cent of the market, according to Euromonitor International market research firm. But its direct-to-consumer model has helped create a sense of intimacy with its customer base that bigger brands find hard to replicate.Consumers have a growing appetite for tailored offerings that make small companies appealing, according to a recent report from management consulting firm Bain & Co., which cited both Harry’s and Dollar Shave Clubs as examples. Chobani’s and Noosa’s have similarly disrupted the yogurt industry, while digital upstarts like Casper’s helped drive Mattress Firm into bankruptcy.Flamingo hopes for the same success in the $1 billion U.S. women’s shaving industry, where Gillette holds 50 per cent of the market, according to Euromonitor. The new brand will compete in a more fractured landscape than the one Harry’s encountered for men’s shavers five years ago.Several new online brands have already seized attention, if not yet significant market share.Among them are Angel Shave Club, which donates part of its sales to the Malala Fund to promote education for girls abroad. The start-up Billie made a splash since launching last year with ads showing body hair — including a gif of a woman shaving her toe — while declaring war on the “pink tax,” the notion that women typically pay more than men for the same product.“It is likely that more women’s shave clubs will enter the U.S. market before one or two players emerge on top,” Kayla Villena, senior analyst at Euromonitor International, said in a recent report that preceded Flamingo’s launch.Melnick and Boey said more than 1 million women have bought Harry’s products, making Flamingo a logical first choice for the company’s newest brand.“My wife uses Harry’s now, too. She was stealing mine, so I got her one,” said Cody Chastain, a 42-year-old Roseville, California, man who likes Harry’s because of the convenience of its delivery service.Flamingo mirrors Harry’s in pricing and the simplicity of its offerings. It has one five-blade razor with a handle that comes in three different colours, priced at $9. Cartridge replacements are $2.25 per blade. It’s a deliberate contrast to the array of women’s razors from Gillette and No. 2 player Schick, which range from disposable razors for around $1 a piece to higher-end razors at 4$ or $5 per blade replacement.One notable difference separates Flamingo from the men’s razors Harry’s offers. Flamingo will offer its products a-la-carte only because women’s shaving routines vary too widely for subscription plans, Melnick says. Some shave only during warm seasons. Other might not bother shaving their legs if they are not in a romantic relationship. And, she says, women are very particular about which part of their body to shave or wax.Melnick has clearly gotten comfortable talking about her own lifelong battle with body hair.“I keep my arm hair, except when I demonstrate our wax strip. But I choose to remove my toe hair,” she says. “It’s all very personal.”
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, Calif. — California voters have narrowly approved a ballot measure banning short-term vacation rentals in residential neighbourhoods outside downtown South Lake Tahoe beginning in three years.The ballot measure came in response to growing concerns about parking congestion and noise at rental homes on the alpine lake along the Nevada state line.The ban effective in 2020 affects about 1,400 short-term rentals outside South Lake Tahoe’s commercial tourist corridor. They still can be rented for up to 30 days a year.The city estimates the new ban will cost the local economy about $4 million annually in tourist tax dollars.An estimated 400 short-term rentals inside the corridor are exempt. The ban also doesn’t affect neighbouring Stateline, Nevada.The final results released by El Dorado County on Wednesday showed the measure passing with 50.42 per cent of the vote, 3,517 to 3,459.The Associated Press
If you are a bullying boss, your employees are more likely to be less committed to their work, take longer breaks or come in late without notice, finds a study. The study led by researchers from the Portland State University in Oregon, US, showed that a bullying boss can decrease “organisational citizenship behaviour”, or the voluntary extras one does that are not part of the job responsibilities. On the other hand, the study also reveled that he/she increases “counterproductive work behaviour”, such as sabotage at work, coming into work late, taking longer-than-allowed breaks, doing tasks incorrectly or withholding effort, all of which can affect the team and co-workers. Also Read – An income drop can harm brain”The findings highlight the consequences of abusive supervision, which is becoming increasingly common in workplaces,” said Liu-Qin Yang, Associate Professor at the University. The study, published in the Journal of Management, attributes negative work behaviour to either perceptions of injustice or work stress. In response to perceptions of injustice, the employees are more likely to purposely withhold from the unpaid extras that help the organisation, like helping co-workers with problems or attending meetings that are not mandatory. Also Read – Shallu Jindal honoured with Mahatma AwardHaving an abusive boss can also lead to work stress, which reduces an employee’s ability to control negative behaviour or contribute to the organisation in a positive way. “Stress is sometimes uncontrollable. You don’t sleep well, so you come in late or take a longer break, lash out at your co-workers or disobey instructions,” Yang further added. “But justice is more rational. Something isn’t fair, so you’re purposely not going to help other people or when the boss asks if anyone can come in on a Saturday to work, you don’t volunteer.” The researchers of the study have highly recommended that organisations should take measures to reduce or curb abusive supervision. Regular training programmes to help supervisors learn and adopt more effective interpersonal and management skills, implementing fair policies as well as conducting stress management training can help employees, they suggested.
Melbourne: Polling companies in Australia are facing the heat after the forecast debacle, with data analysts putting the blame on unrepresentative samples, inability of pollsters to keep up with technology and inadequate monitoring of real-time sentiment on social media. Defying exit poll prections, the ruling Liberal-National conservative coalition led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison claimed a shock victory in Saturday’s general election. It was a stunning turnaround after every opinion poll over the campaign predicted a Labor Party victory. A Galaxy exit poll had put Labor Party led by Bill Shorten at 52 per cent of the vote compared to 48 per cent for the Liberal National coalition, according to Nine News. The Federal opinion poll aggregate BludgerTrack 2019 – which draws from Newspoll, Galaxy, Ipsos, YouGov, Essential Research and ReachTEL polls – also had Labor at 51.7 per cent and the Coalition sitting at 48.3 per cent of the vote on a two-party preferred basis when it was last updated on Friday. In the wake of the Labor Party’s shocking loss, many on social media have railed against the results, Australian news site news.com.au reported. Political scientist Dr Andy Marks, who said earlier in the campaign that a Labor victory was “virtually unquestionable” based on polling, told SBS News that the result shows how “worthless mainstream polling has become”. “I think this is really a cataclysmic era of polling in this country,” he said. “We’ve seen surprises with Brexit (in the UK) and with (Donald) Trump (in the US) in recent years, but generally Australia, due to compulsory voting and other more stabilising factors, hasn’t really been exposed.” Tasmanian electoral analyst Kevin Bonham also described the events as a “massive polling failure”. “Pollsters will have to look at whether their sampling was unrepresentative.” He said he suspected that polling companies tinkered with the raw numbers and made adjustments to stop polls swinging wildly from poll to poll. “I don’t have direct evidence of that … nobody wants to be pushing polling that bounces around too much,” he was quoted as saying by the Financial Review. As of Sunday, Bonham said there seemed to be a three per cent error across every poll in the past two weeks, which is far outside the usual margin for error. “It’s like one poll can be three per cent out and that’s what you would sort of expect now and then by random chance. But all the polls being out by that amount in the same direction and getting all the same results is something that absolutely cannot happen by random chance,” he said. According to Bonham, a number of factors might have been at play, including unrepresentative samples, oversampling people who are politically engaged and herding (when polling firms adjust their results to more closely match competitors out of fear of being wrong). And while compulsory voting may have protected Australia against inaccurate polling in the past, some experts believe it was also a contributor to what happened this time. Writing in The Conversation on Sunday, University of Melbourne statistician Adrian Beaumont said people with higher education levels are more likely to respond to polls, potentially skewing the results. When it comes to voluntary voting systems, this factor does not have as much of an effect as educated people are also more likely to be vote, he argued. Political scientist Dr Andy Marks, however, said the issues were largely due to the fact mainstream polling companies have not been able to keep up with technology. The mobile age has affected pollster ability to generate random samples, he said. “The old idea of ringing up somebody on the landline and asking them who they’ll vote for is redundant and has kind of been redundant, I think, for the last three or four years,” he said.
Colorado RockiesWin48.6 TEAMCONDITIONSPROBABILITY San Diego Padres5 runs18.3 Miami Marlins5 runs24.4 Step aside, ads for daily fantasy and erectile dysfunction: The 2016 baseball season has added another marketing campaign to the pantheon of pervasive (and widely loathed) sports promotions.Major League Baseball has rebranded grand slams1Or in press-release parlance, made “Grand Slams even better.” as “Papa Slams” across all of its properties,2Including MLB Network, MLB.TV and MLB.com. issuing ad infinitum the accompanying promise that every grand slam will yield a 40 percent Papa John’s pizza discount the next day. And thanks to an increased leaguewide home run rate, 28 grand slams have been hit through about 25 percent of the schedule, putting us on pace for 114 grand slams this season3Not counting the kind only the Reds bullpen allows. — the most since 2010.4That’s even ignoring the fact that the ball flies farther when the weather warms up. To watch baseball in 2016 is to live in a constant state of Papa Slam saturation. (To paraphrase another baseball-themed ad you’ve probably watched too many times: well played, Papa John’s.)Baseball is so in bed with Big Pizza that the promotions don’t even stop at a national Papa John’s partnership. They also apply at the local level, thanks to the company’s status as the “official pizza” of 22 big league clubs. Although Papa John’s is far from the first company to sponsor sports promotions of this sort,5And baseball isn’t the first sport Papa John’s has sponsored. an MLB PR official confirmed to us that theirs is the only existing arrangement on the local level that extends to the majority of teams. Basically, it’s Papa John’s discounts all the way down — much to the chagrin of pizza snobs, internet commenters and the petitioning public at large.But there’s an interesting statistical question lurking within the waves of pizza plugs: Which local market is most likely to get a cheap pie?Although every local deal involves some variation on the theme of a 50 percent discount on online orders, the discount conditions in each market are different, ranging from simple offers that activate when the local team wins to more complicated triggers based on the number of runs the team scores, or even the day of the week. According to Papa John’s Senior Director of Public Relations Peter Collins, “local promotion is determined by the local markets and depends on the market dynamics and tolerance to discounting.” In addition, he told us that “team performance is also taken into account.” As Collins pointed out, the Rangers (who scored the third-most runs in the majors last year and play in a hitter’s park) have a seven-run trigger, while the Marlins (who scored the second-fewest runs in the majors last year in a neutral park) have a five-run trigger.Using the specific offers for each market and FanGraphs’ projected rest-of-season standings, we calculated the odds that a pizza discount would be triggered on any given game day.6The gory details: For wins-based discounts, we used FanGraphs’ projected rest-of-season win probabilities, as of May 16. For runs-based discounts, we assumed that the number of team runs per game follows a Poisson distribution, with a mean equal to FanGraphs’ projected rest-of-season runs per game. (Poisson isn’t the best distribution for runs scored, but it was the only distribution we could fit with only projected runs scored figures on hand.) For discounts with multiple criteria, we calculated the probability that a team would score the specified number of runs, then multiplied that by the winning percentage of teams scoring that many runs (or more) in a game during the 2015 season. And we discovered a huge spread in results: Certain markets have discount probabilities in the single digits, while others have better-than-even odds. Kansas City RoyalsWin and 5 runs33.5 St Louis CardinalsWin52.9% Arizona DiamondbacksWin46.8 Seattle Mariners4 runs44.7 Baltimore OriolesWin and 5 runs43.6 Tampa Bay Rays6 runs12.1 Philadelphia PhilliesWin44.5 New York Yankees6 runs14.4 Chicago White Sox5 runs28.3 Source: FanGraphs Cleveland Indians5 runs28.2 Houston AstrosWin on Tuesday8.0 Washington NationalsWin and 7 runs13.8 Milwaukee BrewersWin43.7 LA DodgersWin and 5 runs36.7 Texas Rangers7 runs9.2 Atlanta Braves6 runs7.7 Pittsburgh PiratesWin52.0 Odds of getting that pizza discount by team As if Cardinals fans haven’t had enough perks, the St. Louis promotion — which takes effect when the home team merely wins — is the deal most likely to pay off, with a 53 percent likelihood. (Wisely, perhaps, Papa John’s has no Cubs-based discount.) In other markets with winning teams, though, Papa John’s sometimes adds difficulty by tacking on victory conditions. In order to secure the D.C. discount, for instance, the Nationals need not only to win but also to score at least seven runs, a 14 percent proposition.Some cities’ chances are even more remote. In a just world, Braves fans would be able to ease the pain of watching their team rebuild by buying affordable food. But to add the insult of full-price pizza to the injury of bad baseball, the Braves are the team least likely to trigger the local discount, with odds under 8 percent. To feed Atlantans, baseball’s worst offense has to score six or more runs, a feat it’s achieved in only six of its 39 games. That makes their chances slightly lower than those of the Astros, who have to win on Tuesdays.7To calculate the Astros’ discount, we multiplied the probability that Houston would win a game by the fraction of their games that take place on Tuesdays (16 percent of their schedule).Surprisingly, Papa John’s doesn’t seem to have gamed the discounts much, if at all, and that means there are major inefficiencies in the pizza-promotion marketplace. (Paging Michael Lewis.) Although there’s nothing preventing the company from adjusting on the fly, as of now Papa John’s hasn’t limited its win-based discounts to teams that are more likely to lose, nor has it tailored the runs per game-based discounts to team quality in any statistically significant way. When we randomly scrambled the discount conditions between teams, we found almost no difference in the probability of getting discounted pizza compared to how the discounts are actually assigned.So with great power to exploit local pizza promotions comes … slightly cheaper pizza, potentially. Armed with a spreadsheet, a list of discount codes, and an unquenchable appetite for Papa John’s, a sabermetric pizza handicapper could save some serious meal money in the right market.Much as we might want to, there’s no writing this redshirt out of this season’s script. So the only question left is whether we’re willing to move to St. Louis in search of a discounted slice.Check out our latest MLB predictions. Minnesota TwinsWin42.9