Share Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest The British voted to leave the EU. This decision leaves many unknowns on how this will affect the market long term. So far, this hasn’t affected the grain markets significantly. However, with the dollar stronger, beans may be hit as exports will be more expensive. Are The Highs Over For The Year?It depends on the weather. If forecasts remain wet, the highs are likely done. If weather gets hot and dry, the sky is the limit. The next three weeks of forecasts will determine the corn market. Following is a summary of weather conditions:1/3 of corn belt – great conditions1/3 of corn belt – dry, needs rain1/3 of corn belt – “normal” for this time of yearWith timely rains, expect trend-line or above average yields. Large scale dry conditions may bring a market rally back to recent highs.WheatThe wheat harvest continues to push north and yields are great. There is too much wheat that needs a home. The market is noticing the wheat surplus and end users are trying to find ways to displace corn in the ration. As corn struggles, wheat will likely follow….both will hold the other back.BeansThe effects of weather on beans has more time than corn. Without a yield reduction, beans are likely overvalued long term. Market ActionIt has been a very busy two weeks. Following provides details on recent trades including strategy and rationale.1) Bean BasisLast week I finally priced all of my 2015 bean basis at –.70 the July futures basis picked up on the farm. With the very large carryout this year, I wanted to take the basis now versus waiting (it could be worse down the road). Also, my local processor rolled their bids from the July to November, which indicates they have sufficient coverage on and there is likely little upside basis potential left. In doing this roll they also further lowered the bid they were paying when the spreads in the market are factored in. This was 30 cents from the top of the market over the marketing year and 5 cents better than at harvest last fall.While I’m satisfied with the basis price, I was a little disappointed I didn’t hit the top. There were a few unexpected circumstances that made basis prices behave differently than in years past.Soymeal demand was lower than prior years, so processors didn’t need to push prices as expectedMore farmers took advantage of deferred pricing (DP) programs offered by local processors than ever beforeBean prices rallied unexpectedly in April, causing basis to fall apart. 2) Corn BasisLast week I priced 70% of my 2015 corn basis at -.42 basis picked up on the farm. This basis was 20 cents from the top of the market for the marketing year and 5 cents better than basis at harvest. I avoided long lines and moisture discounts by storing at home but I missed the chance at higher basis levels earlier in the year. Similar to beans I think there is limited basis potential by waiting at this point because many farmers still need to move their stored grain before harvest, which will likely ramp up in late July and August.This year basis moved a little uncharacteristically and I missed the top largely because of two unexpected factors:More farmers took advantage of deferred pricing (DP) programs offered by local processors than ever before, which enabled ethanol plants to procure corn without pushing basis higher.The unexpected 10 inches of rain in December in the upper Midwest caused large elevators with uncovered ground piles to move grain much earlier than intended. This suppressed demand and kept basis uncharacteristically lower. This has only happened once in the last 30 years (1993), so this was ultimately bad luck and not due to faulty strategy.I still have 10% of my 2015 production basis left to sell. I’m going to wait on this to see if there is a drought, which could cause a basis rally in my area. If a drought happens, I could store the last 10% and carry it over to the next year to get a better basis value. Obviously I don’t want a drought to happen, but I’m keeping a little flexibility in my marketing just in case it does.3) Bean SpreadIn late April I had a May futures position (sold at $9.20) I rolled to the July for a 10 cent premium ($9.30). Last week, fearing dry weather and increased exports could push the July prices to extreme inverses (when July is higher priced than futures months after it), I moved my futures position to the August at a 2.5 cent inverse or loss (now $9.265 against the Aug including commissions).Right now there is a 13-cent inverse (decrease) from Aug to Nov, which increases my risk of taking a loss yet on this trade. Typically beans adjust to a carry position closer to the delivery period when there is a large carryout (like we have in the market currently), so I’m going to wait it out. I think the risk is manageable and I’m comfortable with what I know today. Two months ago this spread was a 20 cent loss, so it is narrowing. This still leaves me 100% priced on my 2016 production at a $9.45 average.4) Corn Option #1On Dec. 10, 2015 I sold a $4.30 July corn call for 10 cents. On Tuesday last week when corn was lower, I bought back my sale for a half cent and half cent of commission or a total of 1 cent. While this option expired only three days later, I felt in case weather forecasts changed and pushed the market substantially higher I should exist the position. In other words, why risk 1 cent of profit for no real upside potential? I net 9 cents profit on this trade.5) Corn SpreadLast Nov I had 22% of my 2016 production hedged in Dec ’15 corn futures. I rolled those forward to the Jul ’16 contract hoping to pick up more in the spread between July and Dec than was offered in the market at the time (which was only 10 cents). This last week I rolled those July sales including the one in #6 below to the Sep futures for a 3.5-cent carry (or profit).I did this now because if weather forecasts show hot and dry, I would prefer the 3.5-cent profit versus taking a potential loss on the trade. I still have some risk on the Sep/Dec futures spread, but with potentially 1.7 billion bushels of U.S. corn carryout, I don’t think many end users will want to take grain delivery two weeks before harvest starts (when corn prices are usually at their lowest). The market needs to pay somebody to hold the grain into the future. I want to capitalize on that possibility and I’m willing to take a little risk on 33% of my crop for it. I’m expecting to take more than 8 cents on this Sep / Dec spread and thus doing better than what the market was giving me back in November.6) Corn Option #2On Feb. 19 I sold a $3.80 July corn call for 15 cents. With corn above $3.80 on the July ($3.85) my call turns into a futures contract. This is like a $3.95 sale against the July futures and I still have the potential of the spread between July and December futures. As illustrated in #5 above I have added another 3.5 cents making this trade worth $3.985 now. PositionWith the basis trades now set I can finally set my price for the 2015 crop year. I will reexamine the results of my 2015 sales in late August to assess how my trades look compared to the opportunities I was presented over the marketing year. POSITION – CORN20152016Corn Sold100%55%CBOT Price$4.58$4.17Market Carry$0.185$.25 estBasis on Farm($0.42)($.25) estOptions & spread profits–$0.03 estCash Price$4.34$4.20 estPOSITION – BEANS20152016Beans Sold100%100%CBOT Price$10.79$9.20Market Carry$0.165$.30 estBasis on Farm($0.70)($.30) estCash Price$10.25$9.20 est I have another 22% of my production locked up in covered calls. While they don’t provide downside protection, in a sideways market they are the best play. Even in up and down markets they provide some extra premium potential. Following is a summary of my current options position: Options-CornDate Option PlacedExpiration DateStrike PricePremium Received2/19/20168/26/2016$4.00$0.194/26/20168/26/2016$4.00$0.194/26/20168/26/2016$4.50$0.099/15/201511/25/2016$4.80$0.183/24/201611/25/2016$4.40$0.166/6/201611/25/2016$5.00$0.10 If corn futures were to rally, and all of these covered calls were hit, it would be an average sale price of $4.25 futures with 15 cents additional premium from the call value. That price value of $4.40 is well above my breakeven and after this week certainly looks like a value I would like to have on my entire crop.Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. He can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Share Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Dry weather allowed growers to make large gains on oat harvest this week, as well as continued progress on wheat harvest and hay cutting, according to Cheryl Turner, Ohio State Statistician of the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. There were 6.1 days suitable for fieldwork for the week ending July 17th. While hay cutting continues in earnest, the dry weather has slowed growth and lessened yield from second and third hay cuttings. There is some browning in pastures, as very little rain has fallen throughout the state. Corn and soybeans look good, but will need moisture as they continue to mature. Early planted soybeans are faring better than later planted soybeans. Some fields are looking stressed, but are still in good condition overall. Other activities this week included weed mowing and spraying fields.Read the full report here
Tahira Begum, all of eight years old, is confident that she is mentally and physically tough enough for the arduous trek across the Pir Panjal mountain range. The passes are yet to open. A sudden snowfall last week brought nine inches of snow and closed down the Mughal Road that connects southern Kashmir’s Shopian district with Pir Panjal’s Poonch district. But that does not deter Begum from the journey she and her family have embarked on.Two tents and a few utensils are all they take with them. Food supplies include corn flour, rice, and herbal salt tea, to be supplemented by whatever the forests provide on the way. “Salt tea keeps us full of energy,” Begum says. Despite the sudden snowfall, this winter has been warmer than the previous ones, prompting Begum and her family to set off on their three-month trek earlier than usual, in April instead of mid-May.Towards the ValleyBegum’s family, consisting of her mother Zavra, father Muhammad, elder brother Basharat Ali, and sisters Rukhsana and Dilshad, left their winter hutment in the third week of April, shifting hearth and home from the Sunderbani forest of Jammu’s Rajouri district to the foothills of Bafliaz in Poonch. They will stay put here for a while before commencing the trek that will take them to an altitude of 5,183 ft before they reach Drang in the Kashmir Valley, 38 km north of Srinagar. Ali, 17, will climb a hill every morning to gauge the weather conditions before taking a final call on when to move.Begum hasn’t heard of the eight-year-old Bakherwal girl who was raped and murdered in Kathua in January, with the case bringing the spotlight on the nomadic community. All Begum can think of is a friend living on the other side of the mountain, even as she keeps an eye out for her four trained dogs, collecting wood, and fanning the flame for cooking.Her father Muhammad left a week ago with the Jab, a flock of 250 sheep. “We will raise the flock on green pastures and sell them on Bakri Id in the Valley,” she says. Her father will occupy the family’s traditional doke, a mud-hut made on the forest slope, before the rest of the family members catch up with him.Nomadic traditionsBegum belongs to the nomadic community of herdsmen in Jammu and Kashmir known as the Bakherwals. There are 23.4 lakh Bakherwals in the State, accounting for 11.9% of its population. They are J&K’s third largest linguistic group, after Kashmiri and Dogri speakers.There are two main linguistic groups in the hilly regions of Pir Panjal, Chenab Valley, Kashmir Valley and Jammu — Gojri speakers and Pahari speakers. The Gojri speakers fall into sub-groups, Bakherwals and Gujjars, both Sunni Muslim communities. The Bakherwals migrate from the Kashmir Valley to the plains and hilly areas of Jammu in winters and return to Kashmir in the summers to raise sheep. The Gujjars are more rooted. Many of them own farm land in the Pir Panjal Valley, Chenab Valley, Kashmir Valley and Jammu, and make a living by raising milch cattle.The seasonal migration of Begum’s family and other Bakherwals will involve two months of walking, from their winter hutments in the Jammu forest areas to the Kashmir Valley’s meadows, covering a distance of 550 km. A survey conducted in 2015 by Showkeen Bilal, a research scholar of Aligarh Muslim University and published by the Journal of Business Management and Social Sciences Research, had found that around 1.2 million Bakherwal women were “mentally and physically fatigued”, with 88.1% of those under 13 years of age having below-normal Body Mass Index. Female literacy in the community is just 25.5%, far below the national average of 34.8% among tribal women. Unlike other Bakherwals, Babu owns a piece of land on the wrong side of the fence. “These days, half of my family stays back and avoids coming with me here because of the experiences I went through in the Valley,” says Babu. “I no longer trek to my traditional dokes in Baramulla’s Boniyar area. One summer we found that the Army had set up a camp there. We pleaded with them to allow us access to the dokes. But they wouldn’t. One day my cousin and his son went to look for a missing horse in the camp area. They never returned. Till date we don’t know what happened to them. They just disappeared,” Babu says. “Later, we set up our dokes in Drang, which is nearer.”Many Bakherwals fled to safer locations during the militancy. Haji Muhammad Yousuf, 63, is fighting a court battle in Jammu since 1998 to get his migration benefits. Once a shopkeeper at Surankote’s Madhote area, Yousuf ended up in the middle of a military-militant confrontation.“In 1998, both the Army men and the militants used to come to my shop to buy groceries. It was Pakistan in the night and India in the day for me. But there came about a perception that I worked for the Army. So the militants became suspicious of me. Once that happened, I had no option but to leave my shop and land and migrate permanently to Jammu. Now two decades have passed, and still my application for the benefits of a migrant is pending in the deputy commissioner’s office. Is this justice?” asks Yousuf, who now lives in Jammu’s Narwal locality.Fresh woundsToday the Bakherwals see themselves as being cornered on a number of issues. They have had to deal with a sudden surge in cow vigilantism since 2014. Instances of locals attacking them were video-recorded and circulated widely. Every year they register their family members, cattle strength, and the places they visit, with the deputy commissioner’s office. Only then do they get the permits to move the flock from one place to another.According to police data, while 42 cases of bovine smuggling were filed in 2016, the number jumped to 97 in 2017. “We allow the Bakherwals to move on during the seasonal migration. However, we get tough if the permits are violated for smuggling,” says Rajiv Pande, Senior Superintendent of Police, Poonch.In February this year, when the Government of India’s special representative for J&K, Dineshwar Sharma, visited the State, the Gujjar-Bakherwal community submitted a proposal to him, seeking the creation of an exclusive Army regiment of Gujjars, on the lines of the Gorkha and the Assam regiments, “to defend the borders”.A deathly silenceIn the aftermath of the rape and murder of the eight-year-old Bakherwal child in Kathua, the ideological shift in the Poonch-Rajouri belt is palpable.“For quite some time, there have been no marriages between Muslim Gujjars and Muslim Paharis because of language-based identity politics. But the rape and murder of a Gujjar girl and the politics around it in Jammu is now forcing the Gujjars to think of their identity along religious lines,” says Asad Nomani, a social activist and a Gujjar leader in Poonch.“When I watch the news or read the newspapers, my blood boils,” says Ghulam Maryam, a Class 11 student at Poonch’s Gujjar-Bakerwal Girls Hostel. “This is unforgivable. This could happen to me. I fear stepping out in the dark now. The culprits deserve stringent punishment. We have pinned our hopes on Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti.”Gujjar leader Masud Choudhary says that an anti-Gujjar wave is being created in Jammu. “Gujjars form just 4-5% of the population in Kathua, R.S. Pura and Samba. But it’s being said that this percentage will the change demography of the place. How is it possible?” asks Choudhary, alluding to allegations by Hindu right-wing groups that Gujjars are deliberately settling in Jammu’s Kathua in order to change the district from being a Hindu-majority to a Muslim-majority one. But he adds that the collective outrage over the Kathua case has given the community hope that the people of J&K will ensure justice for the victim’s family.In Kathua, which is 300 km from Poonch, a deathly silence envelops the home of the father (and a Bakherwal herdsman) of the murdered eight-year-old. His two-room house is locked. The family has left with its flock of sheep and entire belongings for the green pastures of Kargil, over 500 km away. A shiny metal amulet hangs on the lock, a sign that the family hopes to return.The neighbours talk about the many times they borrowed milk from the family. “My daughter looked for the victim for four days. During the search she would yell that she has prepared a chicken dish and bought chocolates, hoping to lure her out by tempting her in case she was hiding somewhere. We were neighbours,” says a Hindu who lives nearby but refused to identify herself.The incident, many locals say, has changed the dynamic between communities in Kathua. “When one goes out to get an Aadhaar card or visit the ration shop, you can feel the change in Hindu-Muslim relations,” says Choudhary Nazakat Khatana, a Gujjar and Bakherwal leader from Kathua. “I am surprised that the Gujjars, including the victim’s family, who have been living in the Rasana forests for ages, are now being looked upon with suspicion.”Question of forest rightsDeputy Commissioner, Poonch, Mohammad Aijaz, says the Gujjar-Bakherwal community only have grazing and access rights to dokes, and anyone settling illegally on forest land will face eviction.Since the Forest Rights Act, 2006 is not applicable in J&K, no one from the community can claim ownership or settlement rights in the forest land. “Their access to forest lands is a traditional understanding only, and a purely verbal one,” says Aijaz.BJP leader and former State Forest Minister Choudhary Lal Singh took advantage of the absence of a land rights law for the Bakherwals to evict illegal settlements of the community in Jammu and launch an enclosure drive of the forest land. The BJP’s coalition partner in J&K, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), did try to introduce a legislation on this issue in the Assembly but was stalled by the former. Ironically, the legislation on extending Forest Rights Act 2006, adopted across the country, was stalled by the BJP. The proposed Bill would have decided on granting dwelling rights to the Bakherwals within the forest land besides giving them traditional grazing rights.“We are in favour of extending forest rights to the community. Until such a law comes into force, no State law should be used to give an impression that there is an eviction drive against a particular community,” says the State Public Works Minister and senior PDP leader Naeem Akhtar.Akhtar says that Chief Minister Mufti has already issued a directive to the police that any eviction by the Forest Department, a portfolio currently held by Deputy Chief Minister Nirmal Singh, should be done in consultation with Tribal Affairs Minister Chowdhary Zulfkar Ali.In contrast to the BJP’s official stand, the party’s Muslim MLA from Kalakote, Abdul Ghani Kohli, supports the extension of the Forest Rights Act to J&K. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that the Forest Rights Act should be extended to tribal communities across the country. We believe that it should be. These people have been living in these forests for ages now,” he says.The communal flare-up following the Kathua rape and murder has forced the local administration to step in and douse the communal tension. In Rajouri, Deputy Commissioner Shahid Iqbal Choudhary kicked off a Hindu-Muslim-Sikh-Isai Twenty20 cricket tournament. “Such a tournament will promote the message of peace and communal harmony. It is the best way to positively channelise the energy of the youth,” says Choudhary.Oblivious thus far to the political churn in Kathua, Begum will reach Drung next week, weather permitting. For the next six months, the eight-year-old, like others from the community, will be cut off from the rest of the State as her family’s flock grazes in the meadows. It remains to be seen what the coming winter offers them when they return to the plains of Jammu. Tahira (in red) and her family prepare a meal on Mughal Road in Jammu and Kashmir. | Photo Credit: NISSAR AHMAD “Most Bakherwals fall in the Below Poverty Line (BPL) category. We have only four Bakerwal girls studying, against 15 available seats,” says Kaneeza Bi, matron of the Gujjar and Bakerwal Girls Hostel in Poonch, set up five years ago to reach out to the community. The government’s 1,163 seasonal schools, including mobile teachers who move with the Bakherwals, have failed to achieve the desired objective of bringing the girls to school and teaching them to read and write. “There is a lack of awareness among the Bakherwals to send children, especially girls, to schools. The community see no tangible gains accruing from education and withdraw their children. Besides, absenteeism of mobile teachers is also responsible for the low performance of mobile schools,” says Kaneez Bi.Caught in the crossfireThe Bakherwals consider themselves children of nature. Not many remember their age, or date incidents to specific years, as they follow the seasonal ‘calendar’. It is typical to hear them say something like, “I was born when the winter was particularly severe.”The community takes pride in the fact that they can face any challenge nature throws at them. “I fear hyenas the most. They are more lethal than leopards and bears on the passes leading to the meadows of Drang in the Valley. Hyena attacks have a method to them. They strike the flock precisely when the guard is down, and attack anyone who comes between them and their prey. It is easier to tackle bears up in the Pir Panjal,” says Maroof Ahmad of Kanitar village, who will start his journey next month.The shoots of the maize crop are yet to gain height in Poonch. “That’s a signal for us to leave. We cannot raise flocks of sheep when the crops are around,” Ahmad says. He adds that he is good at the tasks he must carry out during the migration, such as counting over 200 sheep every day before dusk. “It takes over an hour to count them based on a colour coding that we do on their back. We count the flock on a daily basis when we start the migration,” says Ahmad.They might be skilled at managing the vagaries of nature, but the challenges posed by militancy are something else altogether, and the community has often been caught in the crossfire.Back in the summer of 2003, Poonch’s Hillkaka would have ended up facing a Kargil-like situation had it not been for the Bakherwals, who not only passed on crucial information but also joined the police’s Special Operation Group to lead them to the insurgent camps that had been set up at an altitude of 11,000 ft. The village elders even met the then Union Home Minister, L.K. Advani, and spoke to him about “ending the militancy” in the region.“Operation Sarp Vinash lasted five months, starting in January that year. Around 300 militants were hiding in shelters established in the inaccessible recesses of the Pir Panchal range. We helped the Army reach the peaks and the hideouts. Over 60 militants were killed in the operation,” says Tahir, a Bakherwal who was one of the first members of the Village Defence Committee (VDC) that was formed to counter the insurgents.The VDCs were set up in 1995 to arm villagers in areas that were either inaccessible to security forces or highly vulnerable to militants. They were mainly concentrated in the border areas to thwart the militants. The Gujjars, stationed on the upper reaches, were trained and armed with .303 rifles for self-defence.At the receiving endThe Gujjar-Bakherwals say that they have been the backbone of the Army manning the borders. “The movement of the Bakherwals has always proved fruitful to the Army. They strengthened our defence. You cannot call them pro-Pakistani,” says Masud Choudhary, retired vice chancellor of Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University in Rajouri and one of the first local police officers to have served in Kashmir, at the peak of the militancy in 1990s. “It’s not a good idea to antagonise them. One should bear in mind that they even know how to fight leopards and bears,” he adds.Their legendary bravery notwithstanding, Bakherwals such as Babu, 65, a resident of Poonch’s Degwar-Noorkote on the Line of Control (LoC), strike a despondent note. Since he lives on the other side of the Army’s fencing around the village (the Army has fenced many villages near the LoC with the idea of creating an additional buffer zone to curb infiltration by militants), Babu says that he has to register every guest or mason who comes to his house, and also his own movements in and out of the area on a daily basis. “We become the first casualty in case of shelling too. My close relative Muhammad Sadiq’s 15-year-old daughter, Shamim Akhter, died in shelling on October 2 last year. We are constantly on the edge,” Babu says.Many villages in the area have been bifurcated by Army fencing, with only a single gate on the access road for entry and exit. Villagers living inside the fenced areas must make an entry in the register every time they leave or enter the village. Anyone intending to stay out for the night must inform the Army in advance.
Three Assam Rifles personnel were killed and three others injured in an ambush by extremists of the SS Khaplang faction of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) in Nagaland’s Mon district on Sunday afternoon.The NSCN-K, however, claimed it killed “six soldiers” and injured as many in the attack near Aboi town bordering Myanmar. The ambush site is about 23km from district headquarters Mon.Defence officials said a column of the 40 Assam Rifles was fetching water from a stream in a vehicle when the militants detonated an improvised explosive device before opening indiscriminate fire.“One of the slain soldiers was a havildar who was driving the vehicle. Some of the injured soldiers were airlifted to Assam’s Jorhat town where they are being treated at the military hospital,” an Assam Rifles officer said from the paramilitary forces’ headquarters near Meghalaya capital Shillong.‘Colonel’ Isak Sumi, deputy minister of NSCN-K, said in statement that the attack was part of the outfit’s ongoing “summer offensive to sanitise the land against illegal deployment of occupational Indian forces and rein in their illegal activities, provocative movements, perpetration of terror and disturbance of peace and tranquillity in the Naga country”.Mr. Sumi also claimed the NSCN-K killed two Assam Rifles personnel manning a post at Shengha Lampong in Mon district a few days ago. With Sunday’s attack, the outfit said it killed “eight Indian soldiers” within a week.“A major of Assam Rifles was injured in last week’s attack,” Mr. Sumi said. The NSCN-K had in March 2015 walked out of a 14-year-old ceasefire with the Central government. It has in coordination with other outfits such as United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent been attacking the security forces. The worst of such attacks had killed 18 Army personnel in Manipur’s Chandel district in 2015.